<p class="ql-block">英文原文</p><p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">From Kaifeng to New York, glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds</p><p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">As this millennium dawns, New York City is the most important city in the world, the unofficial capital of planet Earth. But before we New Yorkers become too full of ourselves, it might be worthwhile to glance at dilapidated Kaifeng in central China. </p><p class="ql-block">Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in 1000. And if you've never heard of it, that's a useful warning for Americans—as the Chinese headline above puts it, in a language of the future that many more Americans should start learning, "Glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds."</p><p class="ql-block">As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.</p><p class="ql-block">My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Chang'an, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York City; and in 2500, probably none of the above.</p><p class="ql-block">Today Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000. </p><p class="ql-block">An ancient 17-foot painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business.</p><p class="ql-block">Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.</p><p class="ql-block">As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the U.S. illegally, by paying a gang $25,000. But many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader. </p><p class="ql-block">"China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades and we'll catch up with the U.S., even pass it." </p><p class="ql-block">She's right. The U.S. has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass us in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.</p><p class="ql-block">So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng? </p><p class="ql-block">One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years. </p><p class="ql-block">A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world—and that was the beginning of the end. </p><p class="ql-block">I worry about the U.S. in both regards. Our economic management is so lax that we can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. Our technology is strong, but American public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.</p><p class="ql-block">Beside the Yellow River I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name—and yet his progeny were different. "</p><p class="ql-block">Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.</p><p class="ql-block">Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate us to struggle to improve our high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if we rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.</p> <p class="ql-block">中文譯文</p><p class="ql-block"> 從開(kāi)封到紐約——輝煌如過(guò)眼云煙</p><p class="ql-block"><br></p><p class="ql-block">千禧年伊始，紐約成為全球最重要的城市，堪稱地球的“非官方首都”。但在紐約人自滿之前，或許值得看看中國(guó)中部破敗的開(kāi)封。</p><p class="ql-block">開(kāi)封，這座坐落于泥沙淤積的黃河之畔的古城，在公元1000年時(shí)是無(wú)可爭(zhēng)議的世界中心。若你從未聽(tīng)聞它的名字，這對(duì)美國(guó)人而言不啻為一記警鐘——正如本文標(biāo)題所言：“輝煌如過(guò)眼云煙”。</p><p class="ql-block">作為世界唯一的超級(jí)大國(guó)，美國(guó)如今或許覺(jué)得全球主導(dǎo)地位是理所當(dāng)然。但縱觀歷史，霸權(quán)的轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝令人矚目，尤其是對(duì)單個(gè)城市而言。</p><p class="ql-block">我認(rèn)為公元前2000年前后的世界第一城是伊拉克的烏爾；公元前1500年可能是埃及的底比斯；公元前1000年沒(méi)有絕對(duì)霸主，但黎巴嫩的西頓可算候選；公元前500年是波斯的波斯波利斯；公元1年是羅馬；公元500年左右或許是中國(guó)的長(zhǎng)安；公元1000年是中國(guó)的開(kāi)封；公元1500年大概率是意大利的佛羅倫薩；公元2000年是紐約；而到公元2500年，上述城市可能都已不在其列。</p><p class="ql-block">如今的開(kāi)封骯臟貧窮，連省會(huì)都不是，地位卑微到甚至沒(méi)有機(jī)場(chǎng)。它的衰敗更凸顯了時(shí)運(yùn)的變遷。11世紀(jì)，作為中國(guó)北宋的都城，開(kāi)封人口超百萬(wàn)，而當(dāng)時(shí)倫敦的人口僅約1.5萬(wàn)。</p><p class="ql-block">北京故宮博物院珍藏著一幅17英尺長(zhǎng)的古畫(huà)卷，生動(dòng)展現(xiàn)了古代開(kāi)封的繁華喧囂：街上行人摩肩接踵，駱駝馱著絲綢之路的商品往來(lái)不息，茶館酒樓生意興隆。</p><p class="ql-block">開(kāi)封的地位曾吸引著世界各地的人們，包括數(shù)百名猶太人。即便如今，開(kāi)封仍有一些外貌與普通中國(guó)人無(wú)異、卻自認(rèn)猶太人且忌食豬肉的居民。</p><p class="ql-block">我在開(kāi)封一帶走訪時(shí)，詢問(wèn)當(dāng)?shù)厝藶楹芜@座國(guó)際中心會(huì)衰落至此，不少人流露出對(duì)紐約的羨慕。有位男士說(shuō)，他正打算花2.5萬(wàn)美元請(qǐng)黑幫幫忙，非法偷渡到美國(guó)。但更多當(dāng)?shù)厝藞?jiān)信，中國(guó)正踏上復(fù)興之路，終將重拾世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的歷史地位。</p><p class="ql-block">“中國(guó)現(xiàn)在發(fā)展得越來(lái)越好，”城郊年輕農(nóng)婦王瑞娜（音譯）說(shuō)，“再給我們幾十年，就能趕上美國(guó)，甚至超過(guò)它?！?lt;/p><p class="ql-block">她所言非虛。美國(guó)占據(jù)全球最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的地位已逾一個(gè)世紀(jì)，但多數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)顯示，按購(gòu)買力平價(jià)計(jì)算，中國(guó)將在約15年內(nèi)超越美國(guó)。</p><p class="ql-block">那么，紐約能從開(kāi)封這樣的城市中學(xué)到什么？</p><p class="ql-block">其一，保持技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)和穩(wěn)健經(jīng)濟(jì)政策至關(guān)重要。古代中國(guó)的繁榮，部分源于支持增長(zhǎng)、促進(jìn)貿(mào)易的政策，以及曲轅犁、印刷術(shù)、紙幣等技術(shù)革新。但后來(lái)中國(guó)輕視商貿(mào)，人均收入陷入了600年的停滯。</p><p class="ql-block">其二，傲慢自大是致命隱患。中國(guó)曾認(rèn)為無(wú)需向他國(guó)學(xué)習(xí)——而這正是衰敗的開(kāi)端。</p><p class="ql-block">這兩點(diǎn)都讓我為美國(guó)感到擔(dān)憂。我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)管理松散，無(wú)力解決農(nóng)業(yè)補(bǔ)貼或長(zhǎng)期預(yù)算赤字問(wèn)題；技術(shù)雖強(qiáng)，但美國(guó)公立學(xué)校的數(shù)學(xué)和科學(xué)教育僅處于二流水平；美國(guó)人對(duì)世界缺乏興趣，反觀中國(guó)，那份躁動(dòng)、干勁與決心正再次將其推向世界前沿。</p><p class="ql-block">在黃河邊，我遇到了70歲的農(nóng)民王浩（音譯），他從未上過(guò)一天學(xué)，甚至不會(huì)寫(xiě)自己的名字——但他的后代已然不同?！拔业膬蓚€(gè)孫子現(xiàn)在都上了大學(xué)，”他自豪地說(shuō)，接著聊起了家里的電腦。</p><p class="ql-block">想到開(kāi)封，我們應(yīng)奮發(fā)圖強(qiáng)，提升高科技優(yōu)勢(shì)、教育實(shí)力和促增長(zhǎng)政策。因?yàn)槿粑覀児滩阶苑?、安于現(xiàn)狀，即便如紐約這般偉大的城市，最終也可能淪為“哈得孫河畔的開(kāi)封”。</p>